Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.203350 0.244239 0.293275 0.357039 0.438676 0.540944 6.807585e-01
2025-05-25 0.136912 0.178426 0.233630 0.314112 0.431408 0.601011 8.743699e-01
2025-06-01 0.103494 0.144484 0.204053 0.300259 0.458512 0.721931 1.226002e+00
2025-06-08 0.080997 0.120035 0.181399 0.290233 0.491153 0.876161 1.760724e+00
2025-06-15 0.065704 0.102776 0.165405 0.286823 0.538030 1.095086 2.662949e+00
2025-06-22 0.054208 0.088985 0.151716 0.283892 0.589398 1.375915 4.143950e+00
2025-06-29 0.043816 0.074776 0.133688 0.266798 0.605540 1.604691 5.986101e+00
2025-07-06 0.032506 0.056631 0.103868 0.214749 0.512544 1.463096 6.237667e+00
2025-07-13 0.027858 0.050205 0.096093 0.210977 0.549708 1.795829 9.923415e+00
2025-07-20 0.024772 0.046228 0.092518 0.216645 0.622234 2.381083 1.841647e+01
2025-07-27 0.022442 0.043334 0.090667 0.226747 0.722096 3.302170 3.922856e+01
2025-08-03 0.020246 0.040290 0.087737 0.233125 0.819447 4.493346 8.856060e+01
2025-08-10 0.017565 0.035837 0.080699 0.225839 0.866352 5.635608 1.943342e+02
2025-08-17 0.015190 0.031655 0.073369 0.214878 0.892043 6.832488 4.450231e+02
2025-08-24 0.013686 0.029266 0.070281 0.217916 1.002080 9.618506 1.916356e+03
2025-08-31 0.012399 0.027166 0.067489 0.221225 1.128120 13.853375 1.638203e+04
2025-09-07 0.011363 0.025503 0.065562 0.227568 1.295943 21.189337 1.665714e+06
2025-09-14 0.010431 0.023941 0.063548 0.232967 1.480170 33.041819 NaN
2025-09-21 0.009361 0.021818 0.059220 0.225682 1.553593 44.454316 NaN
2025-09-28 0.007832 0.018223 0.049338 0.187204 1.277004 35.488179 NaN
2025-10-05 0.007216 0.017069 0.047348 0.187475 1.399872 52.572865 NaN
2025-10-12 0.006798 0.016402 0.046846 0.195432 1.636592 93.944627 NaN
2025-10-19 0.006469 0.015933 0.046928 0.207080 1.971394 194.987620 NaN